Thursday, June 24, 2004
LUTAS ON BURCH ON ENERGY
My post a couple of days ago about pollution in Beijing attracted a comment from regular reader TM Lutas. Lutas' point is that new energy sources will not cause an immediate shift from polluting hydrocarbon fuels, especially in the developing world, where price pressure from new energy sources developed in the First World will actually prolong the life of hydrocarbon-fueled internal combustion engines in cities like Beijing.
The offhand comment in my original post shouldn't be taken to mean that I don't understand Lutas' point. (Note to readers, keep scrolling and you'll see this:
I'm in Beijing this week, giving some lectures at petrochemical institutes and one of the law schools here.)
It wouldn't be a stretch to say that I'm deeply involved in many facets of China's energy economy. I'm well aware that China will be hooked on hydrocarbons for a long, long time. But that doesn't mean that things can't get much better here in China before the development of alternative energy sources slowly trickles down to the gas stations in Beijing and Shanghai. China has some very strong incentives to clean up the air here. Beijing is going to be showcased to the world during the 2008 Olympics and there are plenty of cosmopolitan Chinese people in influential positions that know that visitors from places like Europe, America and Australia will be shocked to encounter the thick grey smog that enshrouds the city most days.
Beyond that, the political and governmental leadership in Beijing is acutely aware of the strategic implications of China's growing dependence on imported oil. It is not beyond their power to adopt policies that could bend the market forces to which Lutas refers. I don't know whether that will happen, but it could. Hopefully, I'll have more time to write about that possibility when I return home from China in a couple of days.
GB, THHotA
posted by Greg 9:47 PM
